Troy Jensen's Comments Page 2

The conversation is fairly redundant - no single carrier, handset, or mobile OS will dominate in the same fashion Windows has for so many years. Multiple players will thrive, and based on a particular users needs and opinions on what handset/OS/carrier serves their needs better than others, they will make that choice. Every serious study wow gold (and being involved in this space heavily for years until the past eight months) leaves me 100% convinced there will be several strong players. Each has their own merits and as the industry gains critical mass, the major players (survivors) will tailor their operating systems, handset design, and carriers to cater to 4-6 primary demographics. There is plenty of room for more than BlackBerry or iPhone or Android to survive. In my not so humble opinion, all the major hardware/operating system producers will thrive based on the synergistic lift smart phones are achieving, with mid-to-late 2010 being a real tipping point in smartphones (with the upcoming upgrades to hardware/chipsets) thriving, benefiting all the current (and any future) superior smartphone producers. Watch for iPhones next incarnation with a much more powerful chipset and further advancements to their already superior operating system, and I am watching Google's/Android's moves with great interest. Just my two cents, for what it is worth - good article and some good comments, great thinking! Cheers.

Dec 21 02:27 PMCarlos, again, you completely miss the point. "Many countries have embarked on monetization, and it has never ended well for their middle classes." You are absolutely right - but put this in historical context. AGAIN, there has never existed, ever, in human history, a global power comparable to the United States. I am not here (as I stated in my comment) espousing a particular course of action. I am here to tell you that we can indeed print our way out of this current situation, IF that is the course of action taken. Carlos, be realistic. Small Caribbean countries buy large amounts of our treasuries at auctions every month. I don't know about you, but I am doubting the Cayman Islands are holding the $30 billion in treasuries purchased at auction last month - the Federal Reserve purchased those bonds. America can issue all the debt it wants, because there are several factors that are so basic in their premise, it astounds me that people - intelligent people! - simply don't understand how the system really works:1. The Federal Reserve (which, incidentally, is not a government institution, but a "hybrid" of sorts - many Americans have absolutely no idea that it isn't simply a branch of the Federal Government, but an independent private organization with government oversight) can indeed purchase our treasury bonds and hold them as assets with freshly printed currency. The idea that the government could liquidate the federal debt by simply printing up dollars and buying back its own bonds with them is dismissed out of hand by economists and politicians on the ground that it would produce rampant runaway inflation. But would it? Inflation results when the money supply increases faster than goods and services, and replacing government securities with cash would not change the size of the money supply. Federal securities are already money. They have been money ever since Alexander Hamilton made them the basis of the national money supply in the late eighteenth century. The federal securities composing the federal debt (bills, bonds and notes) are treated by the Federal Reserve and by the market itself just as if they were money. Federal securities are traded daily in enormous volume among banks and other financial institutions around the world just as if they were money. If the government were to buy back its own bonds with cash, these instruments of financial value would merely be converted from interest-bearing notes into non-interest-bearing legal tender. American projection-of-power is now the world's new commodity. Gotta hit on this again Carlos. The United States is responsible for 41.5 per cent of the global military spend, distantly followed by the China (5.8% of world share), France (4.5%), UK (4.5%), and Russia (4%). And these numbers are actually off - for various budgeting reasons, the United States unofficially spends much more than the over $600 billion that is officially reported (spend figures are adjusted for exchange rates, as opposed to the purchasing power parity method, or PPP, which is widely accepted as suspect). Why does this matter? Because our economic power is derived from our military power. Again, I am not advocating anything here - just delivering you the facts. Dollar is the default world fiat currency because, by its very definition, the mechanism for valuing a fiat currency is directly correlated to the ability of the government issuing the currency to ensure it remains legal tender. dollar, and it's ability to both print currency, ensure it remains "legal tender", and issue Treasuries is at the moment infinite. China is not even in the outskirts of the neighborhood of playing on the United States level - we have eight carrier battle groups (each of which costs roughly the equal of Norway's annual GDP to maintain each year - amazing thought to even grasp), while China has hull of a never-completed small Soviet aircraft carrier built in the late 80's. It is currently not seaworthy. China has a navy that is only capable of guarding their coast - and even then, barely. So no "China is the New Power" baloney please - I laughed at the "Japan is the New Power" folks in the 80's, and I am giggling again now. could shut down access to the Pacific Ocean whenever it wished. Economically, the United States is dependent on trade with Asia, but not NEARLY as dependent as Asia is on trade with the United States. In the cold harsh reality of the world, East Asia has no real effective countermeasure to an American military or economic move. The bottom line is, we have single-handedly saved the entire global economy with our deficits and expansion of money supply. was inconceivable) call for with certainty. Greece isn't the United States. Japan isn't the United States. Zimbabwe is not the United States. No nation has ever been the United States. 63% of the world's currency reserves are not held in Zimbabwe Dollars. I don't know too many major economies that peg their currency to the Zimbabwe Dollar. Not many countries are absolutely reliant on Zimbabwe as a trading partner. Zimbabwe doesn't account for 24.6% of the global GDP. Zimbabwe does not have a functional internal military, let alone a naval force of any sort, negating Zimbabwe's projection-of-power. Zimbabwe has an extremely small geopolitical margin of error. I have been hearing about the impending doom from our deficits> since before I could speak full sentences. And every year I smile.> Because of America's historically incomparable projection-of-power,> we can indeed manage our deficits. dollar as the default global fiat currency,> we will monetize our way out of our outstanding debts without the> horrors and pain everyone is up in arms about. Mark my words, and> write me back in five years - the United States economy and the Greenback> will be as strong as ever. Gideon Gono of Zimbabwe would be proud. You somehow believe that we can print our way out of our debts without destroying our currency? Your somehow believe that foreign holders of US dollars will simply accept monetization of the debt and cheer the devaluation of their investment?Your attitude reminds me of what the intelligensia kept saying during the 1990s, that Greenspan had ended the business cycle and that recessions were a thing of the past because of technological innovations. As Mark Twain noted, history doesn't repeat itself yet it rhymes. Many countries have embarked on monetization, and it has never ended well for their middle classes.

Nov 30 07:40 AMdondon, you are not far off. Utilities are starting to push-back on rooftop solar energy generation, because of a very simple fact - they aren't making as much revenue-per-household right now. But rooftop solar generation is in its infancy - as it advances beyond a nascent component of the Alternative Energy mix utilities have to subscribe to, and when rooftop systems reach critical mass, the low cost-per-kWh the utilities have to pay for the feed-in energy that becomes more substantial as more rooftop systems join the grid make it a net-positive for both the consumer and the utility companies. With the proper financing and system performance, the residential or commercial building end-user has a cash-flow positive investment from the date of energization. The utilities will receive more and more electricity via feed-in solar energy generation as critical mass of rooftop systems is obtained, giving the utilities (via the Smart Grid, a CRITICAL factor in making Alternative Energy successful) access to energy during peak daytime hours in hot Southwest markets (AC's cranking), and the ability as our national grid expands, becomes intelligent and interconnected, to trade that energy to other geographic areas in need of the energy at a substantial profit. The opportunities are absolutely fantastic - and indeed, with an efficient rooftop system and the right financing (it MUST be ROI-positive from day one for the residential user, financing is a huge key to this market - SolarCity is a firm I absolutely think has the drop on this with their SolarLease program), it will evolve as a net-net positive for both homeowners and the utilities. One final note - remember, Cap and Trade isn't dead, and even putting that aside, the Green movement is here to stay, like it or not - and states are setting their own aggressive Alternative Energy goals. Utilities are under pressure to embrace residential solar generation systems as a quicker, more efficient way to generate solar energy short-term - as opposed to financing those giant solar fields, the homeowner takes on the fiscal burden. Interesting times, and evolving fast!On Nov 30 01:19 AM dondon wrote:> The public utilities don't want you to produce power from your rooftop.> They cannot profit off of you if you don't buy power from them.> That is why the original idea of each home as its own power source> has somehow shifted to building big solar farms in deserts and selling> the electricity to the consumers.

Nov 30 02:43 AMHere here Davewmart!While I actually agree for geopolitical reasons there is absolutely no possibility of the United States defaulting on a single debt, you can't base your case when the facts you start out with are incorrect. will likely monetize itself out of its growing mountain of outstanding debt, all with a little help from our friends. I have been hearing about the impending doom from our deficits since before I could speak full sentences. And every year I smile. Because of America's historically incomparable projection-of-power, we can indeed manage our deficits. dollar as the default global fiat currency, we will monetize our way out of our outstanding debts without the horrors and pain everyone is up in arms about. Mark my words, and write me back in five years - the United States economy and the Greenback will be as strong as ever. Period. 2. Leverage is critical to our entire capitalistic way of life. I agree that over-leverage is not something to be pursued, but I completely disagree with the scaremongers warning us to live more like our grandparents. Wealth-generation will continue at surprising rates over the next ten years, and once we go through this current cycle of delevering, the economy will normalize, and Americans will begin borrowing again - and that is a fantastic thing! Leverage, when used correctly, is a powerful and fundamental portion of America's unrivaled standard-of-living, and should not be viewed as Satan's vehicle for world destruction (I actually read that on an SA comment board - ugghh!).3. Why should we actually cower in fear of the future? Are you actually suggesting we scale back our expectations? I, for one, believe in the American Dream, and it won't be damaged permanently by this recession. helping right the ship - it's wow gold ideal our absolute duty as the global superpower to help the world economies do so). And that recovery is well on its way today.4. Get used to 2010 trending sideways, and the economy start to rebound in 2011. Don't worry about lower standards of living: one car, one television, canning foods, gathering arms and ammo and the rest of the nonsense I keep reading. I simply cannot wait to show screenshots of these comments two years from now and laugh - I don't mean to sound condescending, but I am tired of this absolutely false sense of impending doom. We will not only survive this recession, but we will prosper over the next 10 years in a substantial manner. There are so many reasons for this, I could not fit them in this posting! I'm saving them for an in-depth article this week, so if anyone is interested in actually reading a factual positive outlook, please look for it!5. Your fifth point is a moral opinion, and has absolutely nothing to do with predictive economic modeling. That leads me to my conclusion - too many people are factoring fear, historical trends and events, moral values and political correctness into these predictions. The United States is stunningly powerful. economy is so powerful and resilient, but the simplest answer is military power. The United States completely dominates a continent that is invulnerable to invasion and occupation and in which its military overwhelms those of its neighbors. Virtually every other industrial power in the world has experienced devastating warfare in the 20th century. The United States waged war, but America itself never experienced it. Military power and geographic reality created an economic reality. Other countries lost time recovering from wars. The United States has not. dollar. The United States Navy controls all the oceans of the world. Navy. There have been regionally dominant navies, but never one that was globally and overwhelmingly dominant. We absolutely have problems to navigate, but the American cultural tendency towards doom and destruction is tough for me to read sometimes. But it is a reality. There is a deep-seated belief in America that the United States is approaching the eve of its destruction. Read letters to the editors, these comment boards, and listen to the public discourse. Disastrous wars, uncontrolled deficits, high gasoline prices, shootings at universities, corruption in business and government, and an endless litany of other shortcomings - all of them quite real - create a sense that the American Dream has been shattered and that America is past its prime. If that doesn't convince you, listen to Europeans. There is a continual fear that American power and prosperity are illusory, and that disaster is just around the corner. The sense transcends ideology. American culture is the manic combination of exultant hubris and profound gloom. The net result is a sense of confidence constantly undermined by fear. A final example to to contemplate as we Americans fret over the end of our prosperity and our global leadership position. It is interesting to note that throughout the Cold War, the United States was on the defensive psychologically. Korea, McCarthyism, Cuba, Vietnam, Sputnik, left-wing terrorism in the 1970's and 1980's, and harsh criticism of Reagan by European allies all created a constant sense of gloom and uncertainty in America. Atmospherics gave the United States the continual sense that its advantage in the Cold War was slipping away. Yet underneath the hood, in the objective reality of power relations, the Russians never had a chance. The United States was surprised when it won the Cold War. and its alliance had the Soviet Union surrounded. The Soviets could not afford to challenge the Americans at sea and had instead to devote their budget to building armies and missiles, and they could not match American economic growth rates or entice their allies with economic benefits. The Soviet Union fell further and further behind. And then it collapsed. This disjuncture between the American psyche and geopolitical reality is important to note in today's economic psychological environment for two reasons, as we climb-out of this economic recession and maintain our position as the preeminent economic power in the world. First, it reveals the immaturity of American power. We are a young country, at the beginning of a long period of American dominance, not the end. Second, it reveals a tremendous strength. Because the United States was insecure, it generated a level of effort and energy that was overwhelming, never seen before in human history. Economic adjustments will always occur, and the current adjustment is deep and painful. But it is not the end of the world as we know it. We must/will-> 1. devalue our currency> 2. learn to not spend more than we can afford> 3. drastically scale back our entitlements (and sense of entitlement)> > 4. get used to a lower standard of living, and a lower life expectancy.> > 5. learn to cherish good deeds and creativity, rather than status> and "things"> Some of this is bad, and some is good.> It will be good when the USA comes to feel that it can't afford to> embark on wars of choice.> It will be good when people realize that to live beyond their 70's> is a curse on the wealth of the nation, and a curse on financial> well-being of their offspring.> Change will be real tough, but it only gets tougher by kicking the> can down the road.

Nov 29 11:00 PMThanks for the kind comment!I can weigh in with my own thoughts:1. Fantastic point. Oversupply is going to be an issue the industry is going to have to navigate for the foreseeable future. You are right on in regards to Germany - their demand has somewhat mitigated what could have been a disaster in Q4. But the oversupply issue looks to remain at least through the balance of 2010, with estimates showing one in every two solar panels will not be installed, but rather inventoried. Inventory management will be critical for all the panel producers. I just consulted with a smaller Chinese manufacturer, and some of the steps recommended included bring in an expert in inventory management for the oversupply situation, an aggressive push on partnering with strong solar markets to push demand in a variety of ways, and finally, don't discount a likely Stimulus - The Sequel, and here is betting the Administration will be pumping cash into the Renewable Sector.2. You're right on the money.3. As we both agree, oversupply will lead to downward pressure on panels. I am heavily involved on the financing side for solar projects, and am seeing some very positive indicators in that area - I think we will see 2010 be a much better financing environment for solar. The one variable is technology - a panel manufacturer who introduces a disruptive technology that blows away current efficiency ratings could turn this discussion sideways quickly. Having been in technology for years, it only takes two kids and a firm like Google to completely change the landscape. So quick answer - oversupply will be an issue, but knowing the Chinese and their production processes, I think they will be able to mitigate the worst of it. Margins will shrink, but again, strong sales channels, strategic partnerships, and other tactical hedges will all be factors that should help. in 2010 (and I have some very good reasons for that prediction), further mitigating oversupply. The question I have is:> 1) Germany is strong in Q4 but 50% of global capacity is off line.> half of that is probably permanent (small Chinese and European mfg)> but the other half can be turned on within 2 months notice leading> us back into oversupply> 2) Start-ups that have hit their milestones (Suniva, PV Crystalox)> are rampi
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